Trader tetrose maintains October the rate-hike bet and holds BTC as well as an S&P short position
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AT A GLANCE
Trader tetrose is still betting on October a rate hike and holds BTC and the S&P 500 Index in short positions.
Article
🔍 On-chain detective | A trader is still buying against the trend October rate hikes and holds BTC and an S&P short position
BlockBeats reports that October 10, according to TradingBeats monitoring, the implied probability on Polymarket of “October a Fed rate hike of 25 basis points” is only approximately 15.5%, while the market trader tetrose still retains the previously established rate-hike bet and simultaneously holds approximately 4450000 USD BTC as well as an S&P 500 Index short position.
In the prediction market, tetrose currently holds approximately 297800 shares of “October rate hike of 25 basis points” Yes, with an average purchase cost corresponding to an implied probability of approximately 23.42%. As market expectations for a rate hike cool, the position is currently worth approximately 46200 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 23600 USD.
Meanwhile, after stopping out yesterday, tetrose again shorted approximately 20.95 units of BTC, worth approximately 1734500 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 6491 USD; it also holds an approximately 2711500 USD S&P 500 Index short position, with an unrealized loss of approximately 1666 USD. The two short positions have a combined notional value of approximately 4446000 USD.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371154
Key points
01
BlockBeats reported that TradingBeats monitoring detected an implied probability of approximately “October a Fed rate hike of 25 basis points” on Polymarket. 15.5%。
02
Trader tetrose holds approximately 297800 related Yes shares, with an average purchase cost corresponding to an implied probability of approximately 23.42%。
03
The position is currently worth approximately 46200 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 23600 USD。
04
tetrose again shorted approximately 20.95 units of BTC, worth approximately 1734500 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 6491 USD。
05
tetrose also holds approximately 2711500 USD S&P 500 Index in a short position, with an unrealized loss of approximately 1666 USD。
06
The two short positions have a combined notional value of approximately 4446000 USD。
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This report describes tetrose’s prediction-market bet on October a rate hike and the BTC and S&P 500 Index short positions held on Hyperliquid. The implied probability in the prediction market is approximately 15.5%, below the approximately 23.42%。
Why it matters to readers
The account simultaneously holds a rate-hike bet and two index-related short positions, indicating that its positioning is related to the rate-hike view and expectation of weaker risk assets described in the report; however, these are the positions of a single account only.
This helps explain how concepts such as prediction-market bets, implied probability, short positions, and unrealized losses can appear together in a single trading report.
Risks and unknowns
The information was relayed by BlockBeats from TradingBeats monitoring results; the original report did not provide an independently verifiable on-chain address, transaction record, or platform position link.
The original report did not identify tetrose’s real identity.
The position of a single account cannot represent overall market expectations or policy outcomes.
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Implied probability
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