On-chain analysis says signs of BTC long-term holder capitulation are intensifying, but panic selling liquidation has not continued to expand

AT A GLANCE

Murphy stated that the scale of long-term holders transferring losses to exchanges is relatively high, but overall realized losses have not yet continued to expand.

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Analysis: On-chain data reveals the true panic in BTC, long-term holders "surrender" but panic selling is accelerating

BlockBeats news, November 9, on-chain analyst Murphy released an analysis parsing the true degree of panic in the Bitcoin market through on-chain data. He pointed out that on November 5, the realized losses transferred to exchanges by long-term holders (LTH-RLTE) reached 139000000 USD, a scale exceeded only during the most panicked moments in February and June this year over the past 1 year, indicating that current market anxiety is severe, with even long-term holders beginning to "surrender" and flee. But viewed from another angle, this often means that the clearing of panic selling is accelerating. By comparison, short-term holders have not "fled in blind panic," because they completed most of their turnover earlier this year, and their current average cost is around 75,000 to 76,000 USD, with the current price at the breakeven line, so most people choose to hold and wait.

Overall, the absolute value of the current 24-hour average on-chain realized losses remains very high. Hit by the dual blows of the Binance attack incident at the end of October and the US stock market crash on November 5, market confidence has been frustrated, directly triggering panic among long-term holders. But fortunately, the overall scale of realized losses has not continued to expand. Murphy believes that investors are currently displaying a psychological state of "being reluctant, yet having no choice but to sell at a loss," and the recovery of sentiment needs to wait for an opportunity, namely when people gradually realize that the actual situation is not as bad as expected.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/376212

Key points

BlockBeats reported that on-chain analyst Murphy published an analysis on the level of panic in the Bitcoin market.
Murphy pointed out that on November 5, the realized losses of long-term holders transferring to exchanges (LTH-RLTE) reached 139000000 USD.
The article states that this scale was higher only during the most panicked periods in February and June of this year within the past 1 year.
The article states that short-term holders' current average cost is approximately 75,000 to 76,000 USD, and most are choosing to hold and wait.
The article states that the absolute value of the current 24-hour average on-chain realized losses remains very high, but the overall scale of realized losses has not continued to expand.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This article uses on-chain loss indicators to observe market sentiment. Long-term holders transferring BTC with large unrealized losses to exchanges is interpreted by Murphy as rising anxiety and selling pressure; short-term holders are described as more inclined to wait and see. However, "panic selling accelerating liquidation" and sentiment recovery are analytical judgments, not confirmed outcomes.

Why it matters to readers

The situation of long-term holders transferring losses to exchanges can be used to observe potential selling pressure and market sentiment; whether overall realized losses continue to expand may help determine whether pressure is worsening or stabilizing.

Beginners should treat these on-chain indicators as observational signals rather than definitive buy/sell conclusions; transferring to exchanges does not necessarily mean selling has already occurred.

Risks and unknowns

The original article does not provide raw on-chain data, calculation methods, or independent cross-verification.
It is not possible to confirm that the relevant BTC has already been sold based solely on transfers to exchanges.
"Long-term holder capitulation," "panic selling accelerating liquidation," and sentiment recovery are all Murphy's interpretations or judgments.
The Binance attack at the end of October and the US stock market crash on November 5 mentioned in the article have not been verified with supporting evidence.

On-chain analysis says signs of BTC long-term holder capitulation are intensifying, but panic selling liquidation has not continued to expand

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