Ledger CTO questions the estimate that “30% BTC face quantum risks”
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
Ledger CTO questions the claim that “only approximately 30%of BTC face quantum risks,” arguing that hiding public keys is insufficient to eliminate the risk.
Article
Ledger CTO：only approximately 30%of BTC are subject to questionable claims about quantum risk
PANews September 28 reported that Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet said that he disagrees with the view that “only approximately 30%of BTC face quantum-computing risks, while the remaining approximately 70%are secure because of public-key hashing.” Glassnode data shows that approximately 30.2%of BTC have currently exposed spending public keys on-chain, but Guillemet pointed out that this only reflects the current on-chain state; unexposed public keys may still exist in xpub, devices,PSBT, logs, or backups; moreover, once BTC initiates a transaction, the public key becomes public before the transaction is confirmed. Guillemet cited Google Quantum AI research, stating that under a high-speed quantum-computer model that does not currently exist, a related attack against secp256k1 could be completed in approximately 9 minutes. Therefore, merely hiding public keys cannot solve the quantum...
(Click the link below to read the full article)
🔗https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/01a0e884-b3e5-707c-b528-0e59dd36cd09
Key points
01
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet said that he disagrees with the view that “only approximately 30%of BTC face quantum-computing risks, while the remaining approximately 70%are secure because of public-key hashing.”
02
The article states that Glassnode data shows that approximately 30.2%of BTC have currently exposed spending public keys on-chain.
03
Guillemet pointed out that unexposed public keys may still exist in xpub, devices,PSBT, logs, or backups.
04
Guillemet said that after BTC initiates a transaction, the public key becomes public before the transaction is confirmed.
05
Guillemet cited Google Quantum AI research, stating that under a high-speed quantum-computer model that does not currently exist, a related attack against secp256k1 could be completed in approximately 9 minutes.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
The proportion of publicly visible on-chain public keys only describes the current public state on-chain. Guillemet believes that public keys may also remain in other locations and will become public during a transaction, so the full risk cannot be assessed solely from the approximately 30.2%on-chain exposure rate. The attack time in the article is based on a high-speed quantum-computer model that does not currently exist.
Why it matters to readers
This view questions the method of measuring BTC quantum risks based on the proportion of on-chain public-key exposure, and also points out that hiding public keys may not be a complete protective measure.
Beginners should understand this as a hypothetical discussion of security risks, not a notice that real-world quantum attacks have already occurred; the article does not state what actions users currently need to take.
Risks and unknowns
The body of the article is truncated, so its full argument, research conditions, and final conclusion cannot be confirmed.
The Glassnode data and Google Quantum AI research are both relayed by the article; the available evidence does not provide verifiable original data or the full study.
The claim of approximately 9 minutes depends on a high-speed quantum-computer model that does not currently exist and cannot be used to confirm real-world attack capabilities.
The article does not show that a real-world BTC quantum attack has occurred.
Related Developments
Loading event timeline…
The available content cannot confirm the scale at which unexposed public keys actually exist in the listed locations.
Related concepts
Public key
The key in a key pair that is available to the recipient and is used to verify the validity of the sender’s digital signature.
