Benson Sun believes Bitcoin may follow a “slow bull” trajectory this cycle and form multiple local tops

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Benson Sun: Bitcoin may follow a slow bull trajectory this cycle, gradually reaching new highs

BlockBeats News,September 26, crypto KOL, and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated that Bitcoin is expected to potentially follow a slow bull trajectory this cycle, gradually reaching new highs, rather than forming a clear top after a rapid short-term rise as it did in 2013 and 2017. Before the true cycle top arrives, the market may first show multiple local topping signals.

He believes that 2021 after BTC's main buying pressure has gradually shifted from retail investors to institutions such as listed companies, spot ETF, and corporate treasuries. As institutions primarily buy spot, some capital also uses Delta Neutral strategies for arbitrage, and traditional indicators such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not necessarily return to extreme levels at the cycle top. Recent cycle tops are more likely to be characterized by weakening follow-on institutional capital rather than a broad overheating of retail sentiment.

The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) primarily references overall USD liquidity, Strategy's mNAV, and Bitcoin ETF net flows to determine whether institutional capital is following through when BTC reaches new highs.BTC reaches a rolling 30-day high while ILI does not rise in tandem, this constitutes a yellow divergence; when BTC breaks above its all-time high while ILI diverges and remains below 50, this constitutes a red divergence.

Benson Sun stated that he would use the number of yellow divergences as a reference for assessing the cycle's progress: with each occurrence, he would appropriately reduce altcoin exposure and leverage; as the market enters its later stages, he would gradually increase the proportion of BTC and ultimately retain only spot positions. If a red divergence occurs, he would stop participating further.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/369141

Key points

Benson Sun stated that Bitcoin may follow a slow bull trajectory this cycle, gradually reaching new highs.
He believes that 2021 after BTC's main buying pressure gradually shifted from retail investors to institutions such as listed companies, spot ETF, and corporate treasuries.
He proposed using the Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) to observe whether institutional capital follows BTC to new highs.
He stated that he would reduce altcoin exposure and leverage when a yellow divergence appears, and stop participating further when a red divergence appears.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This is a personal market assessment, not a confirmed market trend. Benson Sun believes Bitcoin may rise slowly and display multiple local topping signals during its ascent; he focuses more on whether institutional capital continues to follow through.

Why it matters to readers

If this framework holds, assessing the market cycle may require monitoring institutional capital and ETF net flows, rather than relying solely on retail sentiment or traditional indicators.

The “divergence” mentioned in the article refers to price reaching new highs while the related capital indicator does not strengthen in tandem; the author regards this as a signal to reduce risk.

Risks and unknowns

The evidence does not provide the current Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) value.
The evidence does not confirm whether a yellow or red divergence has already occurred.
The evidence does not provide independently verifiable market data or a formal research report.
The slow bull trajectory and cycle-top assessment remain personal opinions.

Benson Sun believes Bitcoin may follow a “slow bull” trajectory this cycle and form multiple local tops

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