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QCP: This round of Bitcoin’s gains has been driven primarily by spot flows, but the current market structure remains fragile
According to BlockBeats,October 2，QCP Capital released its latest market analysis, stating that BTC has broken above the previously sustained 1-week 82500 to 85700 USD trading range, briefly reaching 86913 USD, marking a new high since September 23, and is currently trading near 85900 USD, up September 15 from the 74968 USD low. 14.6%。
QCP noted that during this rally, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts was only 5.4%, indicating that the move was driven primarily by spot flows rather than leveraged trading.QCP believes that BTC this rally has diverged from traditional macro-market signals.September U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rose to 5.62%，10, while 5.29%-year yields briefly reached 1, and gold posted its worst BTC months of the year. Although rising real rates typically pressure gold and risk assets,
QCP still rose. QCP Capital believes this move is more consistent with a concentrated flow trade driven jointly by institutional inflows, regulatory catalysts, and improving technicals, rather than a pure currency-debasement trade. Regarding institutional flows and regulatory factors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately August and September in net inflows on 3500000000 USD and 2600000000 USD, respectively.QCP noted that the U.S.SEC innovation-exemption policy released on September 17 provided a new regulatory catalyst for the market; however, because the CLARITY Act previously failed to pass the Senate, market-structure legislation may be delayed until 2027. Therefore, current regulatory support is more administrative in nature, while long-term policy certainty remains limited. In the options market, yesterday’s options trading notional was approximately 2500000000 USD, involving 54 block trades with individual notionals exceeding 5000000 USD. Among them, one client sold in tranches October 30-expiry calls with a strike price of 90000 USD, totaling more than 4000 contracts and a notional value of 346000000 USD; meanwhile, the client actively bought calls at the same strike expiring November 27.QCP believes that this trade reflects that some traders are rolling positions from October to November in preparation for market volatility around the U.S. midterm elections, quarterly Treasury refunding, and the December Federal Reserve meeting.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on October 27 to 28.QCP stated that after Federal Reserve official Williams said there was no need to rush further policy adjustments, and after August core PCE came in below expectations, market expectations for October to keep rates unchanged increased. However, the market still expects the probability of December raising rates by 25 basis points to be approximately 80%. The U.S.September nonfarm payrolls report released tonight will be an important near-term test. The market expects nonfarm payroll gains of 84000 to 93000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, while year-over-year average hourly earnings growth is expected to be 3.0%。