Ye Tan Says AI Has Become a New Direction for Growth, Warns of Industry Divergence and Investment Risks

AT A GLANCE

Ye Tan believes that the Internet era is approaching its end and AI has become a new direction for growth, but industry growth does not mean that investments will necessarily be profitable.

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Ye Tan: The Internet Era Is Approaching Its End, While the AI Era Has Already Begun

BlockBeats reported that on September 23, during the “Binance Salon” segment of the “Ye Tan—Under the Cycle” private session, renowned economist Ye Tan shared her views on the Kondratieff cycle, changes in China’s economic structure, and the flow of wealth. She said that if the current period is a turning point in the Kondratieff cycle, the Internet era is approaching its end, while AI has become a new direction for growth, and this round of change has in fact already begun.

Ye Tan pointed out that against the backdrop of an overall decline in investment in China, investment in AI-related infrastructure remains at the level of tens of trillions of yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%. If relevant plans continue through 2030, social wealth and resources may continue to tilt toward emerging industries such as AI. At the same time, she stressed that there are also differences among subsectors and market volatility within AI, and growth in an industry does not necessarily mean that related investments will be profitable.

Regarding China’s economic cycle, Ye Tan said that over the past 40 years, China rapidly completed multiple stages involving manufacturing, basic industries, and informatization. The pace of economic-structure shifts has accelerated significantly, also bringing about sharp divergence among different assets and industries. Taking real estate and high-tech industries as examples, she noted that during the same period, different industries and groups of people may have completely different experiences of the economic cycle. In essence, this reflects the redistribution of wealth among different industries.

At the medium-cycle level, geopolitics is also affecting industry conditions. Taking the shipping industry as an example, Ye Tan said that disruptions to Red Sea routes have lengthened shipping routes and reduced vessel turnaround efficiency, objectively increasing shipping companies’ demand for vessels and extending the duration of the shipping industry’s upcycle.

Regarding the current economic environment, Ye Tan said that traditional manufacturing and some consumer sectors may be at the end of a downturn cycle and gradually reaching a bottom. At the same time, new industries are emerging, creating clear structural divergence. She believes that cycles themselves do not directly tell investors what to buy, but can help them observe where wealth and funds are flowing and where risks are accumulating.

Finally, Ye Tan stressed that investors differ in the tools they are skilled at using and in their risk tolerance. They should invest according to their own circumstances, test with small amounts, and act within their means.

Key points

On September 23, Ye Tan shared her views during the “Binance Salon” segment of the “Ye Tan—Under the Cycle” private session.
Ye Tan said that if the current period is a turning point in the Kondratieff cycle, the Internet era is approaching its end and AI has become a new direction for growth.
Ye Tan said that against the backdrop of an overall decline in investment in China, AI-related infrastructure investment remains at the level of tens of trillions of yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%.
Ye Tan said that if relevant plans continue through 2030, social wealth and resources may continue to tilt toward emerging industries such as AI.
Ye Tan stressed that there are differences among subsectors and market volatility within AI, and growth in an industry does not necessarily mean that related investments will be profitable.
Ye Tan believes that traditional manufacturing and some consumer sectors may be at the end of a downturn cycle and gradually reaching a bottom, while new industries are emerging.
Ye Tan advised investors to invest according to the tools they use and their risk tolerance, test with small amounts, and act within their means.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This content presents Ye Tan’s assessment of economic cycles and industry changes. She believes that more funds and resources may flow toward new industries such as AI, but industry development and personal investment gains are not the same thing, and substantial volatility may still occur in different subsectors.

Why it matters to readers

These views prompt investors to pay attention to fund flows among industries and structural divergence, while avoiding equating growth in the AI industry directly with inevitable gains in related assets.

Beginners can use this as a reference for observing industry trends, but should not decide whether to buy or sell based solely on this content; the original text also recommends testing with small amounts and considering one’s own risk tolerance.

Risks and unknowns

The text does not provide sources or calculation methods for the figures on the scale of AI infrastructure investment and the average annual compound growth rate.
The statements that the Internet era is approaching its end and that AI has become a new direction for growth are Ye Tan’s opinions; the outcomes cannot yet be confirmed from the text.
Whether funds will continue to flow toward AI depends on whether relevant plans can continue through 2030; the text does not confirm that this condition will necessarily hold.
The text provides no validating data on whether traditional manufacturing and some consumer sectors are already near the bottom of their cycles.

Ye Tan Says AI Has Become a New Direction for Growth, Warns of Industry Divergence and Investment Risks

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