X account: The Kobeissi Letter said on X that gold fell 3.4%in a single day, as surging U.S. Treasury yields hit precious metals
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AT A GLANCE
Gold fell 3.4%in a single day, as surging U.S. Treasury yields hit precious-metals markets.
Article
Analysis: Gold posts a rare single-day plunge, U.S. Treasury yields surge and disrupt precious-metals markets 20 in years
PANews September 30 reported that The Kobeissi Letter posted an analysis on X stating that gold prices fell 3.4%, marking an extremely rare single-day decline in recent 20 years. Since 2006, gold’s average daily move has been +0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%, making today’s decline correspond to a Z-score of -2.90, placing it in the extreme left tail of the return distribution. Assuming a normal distribution, the estimated probability of a single-day decline of this magnitude is approximately 0.2%, meaning it occurs on average once every 2 years. The analyst noted that surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing an unusual shock to precious-metals markets.
PANews reported that The Kobeissi Letter analyzed on X that gold prices fell 3.4%。
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The decline was described as an extremely rare single-day drop in nearly 20 years.
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Since 2006 years, gold’s average daily move has been +0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%。
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The article stated that today’s decline corresponds to a Z-score of -2.90, placing it in the extreme left tail of the return distribution.
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Assuming a normal distribution, the estimated probability of a single-day decline of this magnitude is approximately 0.2%, occurring on average once every 2 years.
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The analyst noted that surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing an unusual shock to precious-metals markets.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
Gold fell much more sharply on this 1 day than usual. The article used historical average volatility and standard deviation to measure this decline, considering it an extremely rare drop, and noted that rising U.S. Treasury yields may be disrupting precious-metals markets.
Why it matters to readers
Gold experienced a rare sharp single-day decline, indicating significantly heightened short-term volatility in precious-metals markets; analysts identified surging U.S. Treasury yields as an important disruptive factor.
The lower the Z-score, the more extreme this decline is relative to typical historical volatility; -2.90 means that it lies on the more extreme downside of the historical return distribution.
Risks and unknowns
The original article did not provide raw gold-price or U.S. Treasury-yield market data, or an independently verifiable chain of evidence.
“Approximately 0.2%” and “on average once every 2 years” are estimates based on a normal distribution and do not represent the actual frequency of occurrence.
The original article did not specify how much U.S. Treasury yields rose, nor did it clarify the extent of their causal effect on gold’s decline.
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Related concepts
standard deviation
Measures the extent to which an asset’s returns deviate from the average; a higher value generally indicates greater volatility.
